Attitudinal Consequences of Random Experience: Evidence from Beijing Car Lottery

主講嘉賓：陸方文 中國人民大學bevictor伟德官网副教授

講座時間：2017年11月29日（周三） 15:00--17:00

講座地點：學術會堂606

嘉賓簡介：

陸方文，于2011年畢業于美國加州伯克利大學經濟學博士，現任中國人民大學bevictor伟德官网副教授。她擅長運用随機實驗方法探讨勞動和發展經濟學領域的熱點難點問題，其研究成果發表在《Management Science》, 《Journal of Development Economics》, 《Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization》, 《Journal of Labor Economics》, 《Journal of Public Economics》等多家國際頂級或領先學術期刊。

内容摘要：

We conducted a representative survey of participants in Beijing car lottery. After controlling for the time of participation, whether winning a lottery or not is random.Exploiting this exogeneity, we find that winning the lottery makes people feel happier in general. Lottery winners believe they had a better luck in the car lottery, but the sense of more luck extends to other daily lottery events and even to a toss of a coin, showing clear evidence for misattribution and over-confidence. Winners are also more likely to perceive the car lottery as being fair, and the sense of just also extends to other lottery extents, like welfare housing lottery. However, winners are not more likely to vote for Beijing car lottery against Shanghai auction. Finally, as lottery winners are more likely to own a car, they are more likely to prefer free parking in a shopping mall even if this would raise prices. However, although winners drive more on road, they don't vote for more investment on roads than on subways. We also find that college education mediates the attitudinal bias.