講座主題：Extrapolative Beliefs and Financial Decisions: Causal Evidence from Renewable Energy Financing

主講嘉賓：秦雨，新加坡國立大學

講座時間：2023年06月06日（周二），10:00-12:00

講座地點：bevictor伟德官网學院南路校區實驗樓616

嘉賓簡介：

秦雨，新加坡國立大學商學院房地産系院長講席長聘副教授，康奈爾大學應用經濟學博士，主要研究領域為環境經濟學、城市經濟學。擔任國際期刊China Economic Review共同主編； Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization副主編； Journal of Economic Geography編委會委員。研究發表在Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Nature Climate Change, Nature Human Behaviour, Nature Water等雜志。

内容摘要：How do expectation biases causally affect households’ financial decisions? We exploit a unique setting and study the repayment decision in solar loans, in which households borrow to purchase and install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Electricity production – the benefit that solar panels generate – primarily depends on sunshine duration. This creates exogenous within-person across-period variation in recent signals that borrowers observe and thereby expectations of future electricity production. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in sunshine duration in the week right before the repayment date leads to a 20.8% increase of delinquency, even though deviated past sunshine duration does not predict that in the future. Survey evidence shows that agents make more positive forecasts of future electricity production after experiencing longer sunshine duration in the past week. We examine a battery of alternative explanations and rule out mechanisms based on liquidity constraints and wealth effects.