講座主題：“Was the World’s Trouble China’s Opportunity?” The Effects of WorldWar I on Chinese Textile Industry

主講嘉賓：劉叢（上海财經大學bevictor伟德官网助理教授）

講座時間：2018年11月2日（周五），下午1：30-3:00

講座地點：沙河主教301

嘉賓簡介：劉叢，上海财經大學助理教授，2016年獲得亞利桑那大學經濟學博士學位，2011年獲得北京大學經濟學學士學位。主要研究領域包括中國經濟史、發展經濟學、政治經濟學、國際貿易。研究成果發表于《經濟研究》等期刊。

内容摘要：Import substitution is a commonly adopted policy, yet the evidenceon its results is mixed. This paper uses unexpected trade disturbances due toWorld War I to study how a temporary reduction of imports influenced thedevelopment of Chinese cotton yarn industry. During the war, Chinese importquantity of cotton yarn decreased by half while the price doubled. Narrativeevidence suggests that the yarn firms took this opportunity to earn additionalprofits and increase investments, but aggregated studies show that the postwaryears experienced greater capital formation. I combine newly constructedinformation on cotton yarn firms, access to trade, and local characteristicsfrom multiple sources to construct a county-level panel dataset from 1907 to1925 and quantitatively examine the impact of this trade shock on firm entryand investments. The results find a significant and positive impact on thecotton yarn industry, while the effect decreased as counties located furtherfrom ports. In addition, I examine the heterogeneous effects associated withvarious local institutions, and find that assess to finance was essential forfirm entry. In other worlds, contemporary import substitution strategy bringspotential gains for domestic industrial development, but supportiveinstitutions are necessary for the benefits.