China as a “Developmental State” Miracle: Industrial Policy, Technological Change, and Productivity

Growth

主講人：毛捷

時間：2017年4月6日 下午2:00-4:00

地點：bevictor伟德官网1305會議室

主講人簡介：

毛捷，對外經濟貿易大學國際經濟貿易學院副教授、财稅系副系主任。2008年于浙江大學獲得經濟學博士學位，2009-2011年于清華大學經濟管理學院完成博士後研究，2015-2016年美國加州大學聖地亞哥分校全球政策與戰略學院訪問學者。兼任清華大學中國财政稅收研究所、中國人民大學财稅研究所兼職研究員、中國成本研究會理事。主要研究領域：政府間财政關系、稅制改革、稅式支出、社會保障、地方債務和金融抑制等。主講課程：财政學、國際财政學、稅收學、稅收經濟學、高級公共财政等。主持國家自然科學基金項目、北京市哲學社會科學規劃項目等課題，并在China Economic Review、Economics Bulletin、Energy Policy、China Finance and Economic Review、《經濟研究》、《管理世界》、《世界經濟》、《經濟學（季刊）》、《金融研究》、《中國工業經濟》、《财貿經濟》和《财政研究》等國内外學術期刊上發表論文40餘篇。

摘要：

Existing explanations of China’s dramatic economic growth since 1978 have neglected a key piece of the China Puzzle, that is, China since 1978 has been a typical “East Asian Developmental State” (EADS) with a long socialist legacy that regularly deploys industrial and science & technology (S&T) policy to “pick winners” in key industries. Combining a unique dataset on China’s industrial policy and S&T policy with a unique dataset on firm-level performance including productivity, investment and output across various industries, we demonstrate that China’s EADS with a long socialist legacy has indeed been a key driver of China’s post-1978 economic miracle, since 2000 at least. We show that the Chinese state has been successful in “picking winners” by targeting certain industries with industrial and S&T policies, and these industries have enjoyed impressive productivity growth. Yet, whether the state can succeed in “picking winners” critically depends on the nature of an industry. When an industry is an emerging one with a rapid technological change pace, China’s industrial and S&T policies have indeed led to rapid productivity growth and by implication, significant technological catch-up in the industry. In contrast, when an industry is a fairly mature one with only slow pace of technological change, China’s industrial and S&T policies have had little effect on productivity growth. By providing the first systematic econometric study of the EADS model, our study yields important policy implications for

middle-to-large size developing countries in crafting their developmental strategies and policies.